Redraft Half-PPR ADP Market Check-in
Things are early, but they're already changing
On our most recent episode of Endless Season Fantasy Podcast, we discussed ADP Market values for 1QB, HalfPPR leagues. You can listen to that here (also available on Spotify, Amazon, and Acast.)
We all love to nail a sleeper late in the draft, so we take a look at what the pricing looks like, potential sleeper targets, and possible overpays.
QBs
Drake Maye - 4.9 QB3- This is one of those picks that will make or break your 2026 season. If Drake Maye and A.J. Brown go off like I suggest they might here, you're golden. If Maye looks like he did in the playoffs last year, you'll look stupid for not drafting one of the other QBs far later in the draft.
Justin Herbert - 7.12 QB8- Some fear Mike McCarthy bringing a heavy run game to the Chargers as OC, but they forget he made Tua Tagovailoa QB9 just two years ago. "But he had Tyreek Hill!" you protest. Yes, and Herbert has Ladd McConkey.
Patrick Mahomes - 9.3 QB12- Look, Patrick Mahomes hasn't put together consistently elite games in the regular season for some time now, but he still managed to have 6 top 5 finishes last year. He's not dead yet.
RBs
Ken Walker - 1.09 RB6 - Zach's comment here was "Right after James Cook - is this right?" And I think it's a great framing. Ken Walker in the first is a little wild based on what we know about Andy Reid's usage of RBs in the past, but maybe he will shift all the carries to Walker due to the massive contract he just signed. We saw late last year Walker can handle the workload.
Ashton Jeanty - 1.12 RB7- Another big swing here, Jeanty may be the RB1 this year (we heard this last year as well.) He'll need more competent play around him, which he may get from Kirk Cousins and a hopefully improved offensive line. Rookie Mendoza is waiting in the wings.
Derrick Henry 3.5 - RB15 - Look, a few years ago, I was counting on Henry to fall off. A few years later, I am done predicting when that happens. Derrick Henry will decide that for himself. Doubt him at your own peril.
Treveyon Henderson - 4.7 RB20 // Rhamondre 6.9 RB28 - Another conundrum. If you're picking in Best Ball, Henderson might be the better chunk yardage guy, but Rhamondre proved time and again he's steady, controls the ball, is great in the red zone, and he has deceptively smooth hands in the receiving game as well. For me, I'm taking Stevenson over Henderson.
WRs
Justin Jefferson - 2.2 WR6 - Out of the first round, behind Achane, Jeanty (ARSB, CD, Puka, JSN, Chase as well). JJ at WR6 seems like a crime. I know the QB situation is dire, but I expect a bounce-back season.
Luther Burden - 4.4 WR17 - Renowned Burden Guy, Zach's comment was, "Seems rich." I agree. Burden in the 4th would require quite a season. There are likely safer options below.
Devonta Smith - 5.4 WR23 - Speaking of a safer option, Devonta's the man in Philly now. Can he do it? Can Hurts?
DJ Moore - 5.10 WR26- Josh Allen got his WR, kind of. DJ Moore catching balls from QB1 in what will be a more pass-heavy offense under Joe Brady. 5.10 seems like a steal.
Jags WRs Meyers, BTJ, Parker Wash- 7.9, 7.10, 9.1 - WRs 36, 37, 42.- The cluster we all seem destined to get wrong. The Jags offense is potent, but can it support 3 midround WRs? Don't short change Brenton Strange, either. Of the 3, I think Meyers has TD-reliant usage. If he is targeted in the end zone, he may even be the WR1 of these three. BTJ looks to have a bounce-back year and may be a steal at this price. Parker Washington is the fantasy darling of this year so far and continues to rise. His targets compete directly with Strange. In my opinion, defenses will give him a bit more trouble and the Jags may rotate to whoever's open.
Wan'Dale Robinson - 10.5 WR44- Wan'Dale is perfect for the Titans offense and for 2nd year QB Cam Ward. He may lead those WRs in targets this year, and he's absolutely my sleeper pick for this point in the year. Go get it.
Keon Coleman - 20.4- I mean 20th round... why not, right?
TEs
Brock Bowers - 3.3 TE2 behind McBride at 2.8- I don't think I can doubt Bowers and I'm targeting him in the 2nd.
George Kittle - 9.12 TE16 // Jake Tonges 16.11 - Kittle was great last year and he looks like he's recovering just fine from his injury. He's another ageless wonder and this might be a bargain bin price for him. Tonges in the 16th? Idk, sure.