QB hub

QB Lab

Passing process from Next Gen Stats (efficiency, depth, time to throw) plus Pro Football Reference advanced pass charting (pressure, bad throws) where names align. Season-long averages; minimum charted games to qualify. Not a projection model—pair with VORP, xFP, or EPA for fantasy outcomes.

?season=2024 in the URL for shareable views.

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Metric guide

The QB Lab: efficiency, explained

Quarterback box scores hide as much as they show. The QB Lab breaks quarterback play into the inputs that actually predict future production — accuracy over expectation, aggressiveness, time to throw, and downfield intent — so you can tell real efficiency from a favorable week.

Completion over expectation and friends

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE) measures how often a quarterback completes passes relative to the difficulty of the throws he attempts — it credits accuracy on hard throws and refuses to reward easy checkdowns. It's one of the stickiest quarterback traits from year to year, which makes it far more predictive than raw completion percentage.

Around it sit the tells of how a quarterback plays: average time to throw, average intended air yards, and aggressiveness (how often he throws into tight coverage). Together they describe whether a passer is pushing the ball into fantasy-friendly, high-value areas or managing the game underneath.

Turning traits into fantasy value

Downfield, aggressive quarterbacks with strong accuracy support their pass-catchers and post the ceilings that win fantasy weeks. Conservative, quick-game passers can win real games while capping the fantasy upside of everyone around them. Reading these traits helps you value not just the quarterback but the receivers and tight ends who depend on him.

For superflex and two-quarterback leagues, where passer scarcity is real, these efficiency signals are the difference between a quarterback whose production holds and one who was floating on unsustainable touchdown luck.

How to use it

  • Favor high-CPOE quarterbacks when projecting forward — accuracy over expectation carries year to year.
  • Use a quarterback's aggressiveness and air yards to value his receivers' ceilings, not just the passer himself.
  • Lean on these traits hardest in superflex, where quarterback quality is scarce and matters most.

What it doesn't tell you

  • Efficiency metrics describe how a quarterback plays, not how many points he'll score — rushing volume can override passing efficiency for fantasy.
  • Early-season samples are noisy; give the traits a few games to stabilize.

Frequently asked

Why use CPOE instead of completion percentage?
Completion percentage rewards easy throws. CPOE adjusts for how hard each throw was, so it isolates real accuracy and predicts future play far better.