We start from the expert consensus, then adjust for what actually changes between seasons: young players tend to get better, older ones slow down, and switching teams usually costs production. Every adjustment is measured from recent NFL history — none of it is hand-tuned. We also read expected pointsfrom real opportunity data to catch players who got TD-lucky (they regress) or unlucky (they bounce back) — the "Luck" column. For team-changers we read the landing spot from roster data and coaching context (hover the ↑/↓ chip) — though the market already prices most of it, so it's shown to explain the move, not double-count it. We also fold in offensive-line strength(expert-consensus 2026 rankings) as a position-weighted modifier — a strong line lifts its backs and QB, a weak one drags them down (the "OL" column shows the PPG applied). We publish two totals: If Healthy is the full 17-game pace most sites show, and Exp Ptsbuilds in missed games (even the most durable stars average 14–15 a season). The gap between them is each player's availability risk — draft on Exp Pts, dream on If Healthy.