Boom/bust rates, weekly floor and ceiling projections, and coefficient of variation. Find the reliable starters and high-variance flex plays.
Two players can average the same points and win you completely different numbers of weeks. Consistency separates the steady starters you can set and forget from the boom-or-bust gambles that either win your week or sink it.
We grade every week by where a player finished among startable options at his position — a boom is a top-tier weekly finish, a bust is a week outside the startable range. A player's boom rate and bust rate tell you the shape of his scoring, not just its average. Two 14-point-per-game receivers can hide very different profiles: one posts 12–16 every week, the other alternates 4 and 24.
Because your lineup is scored week by week and not on season totals, that shape matters. The steady player quietly wins you more weeks; the volatile one needs the right week to pay off.
High-floor, consistent players are what you want at the core of your lineup and in season-long roster construction — they reduce the number of weeks a single dud costs you a matchup. High-ceiling, boom-heavy players are most valuable as tournament dart throws, as the swing piece when you're a heavy underdog, or in best-ball formats where only the booms count.
Late in a close matchup, floor wins. When you need a blow-up to survive, ceiling wins. Reading a player's boom/bust split lets you deploy him for the week you actually have.