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Metric guide

ADP Trends, explained

Average draft position (ADP) is the market's collective opinion of a player's value, and its movement is a live feed of that opinion. Reading ADP trends tells you where the crowd is heading — and, more importantly, where it's wrong.

The market as a baseline

ADP is the average spot at which a player is being drafted across thousands of leagues. It's the single best baseline for what a pick costs, and its trend over time captures the news, hype, and role changes the market is reacting to. A player climbing boards is being bid up; a player sliding is being written off.

The value in ADP isn't following it — it's using it as the price you're paying. Your edge comes from the gap between the market's price and your own read on a player.

Trading against the trend

Rising ADP creates both opportunity and traps. Sometimes the market is early on a real role change and you should get ahead of it; other times the hype has run past the situation and the player is now overpriced. Falling ADP is where value hides — a player whose price has dropped faster than his outlook is the classic draft-day bargain.

Track the movement, then ask why. When the reason is durable (a locked-in role, a vacated target share) the trend is worth chasing; when it's a single splashy game or offseason noise, it's a chance to zig while the room zags.

How to use it

  • Use ADP as your cost baseline, then draft the gaps between price and your own valuation.
  • Buy the players whose ADP has fallen faster than their real outlook.
  • Get ahead of durable role changes early, but fade hype that has outrun the situation.

What it doesn't tell you

  • ADP is a market average, not a projection — it reflects consensus, including consensus mistakes.
  • Format matters: redraft, dynasty, and superflex ADPs diverge sharply, so read the one that matches your league.

Frequently asked

Should I just draft at ADP?
Use it as the price, not the plan. Your advantage is drafting players whose value exceeds their ADP and passing on those whose ADP has outrun their outlook.